Twelve Capital Event Update 29 July 2019

Summary

No new natural catastrophe events took place over the last two weeks that would be expected to cause major insured industry losses.

Estimates of insured losses are now coming in for Tropical Storm Barry, which took place on 13 July and made landfall in Louisiana. These range from USD 300m to USD 600m, excluding any claims which will be the responsibility of the US National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Currently, Twelve Capital does not expect this tropical storm to have a noticeable impact on the portfolios it manages. As usual, Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor the ongoing situation and will issue updated event reports if the current situation is deemed to have changed materially.

Elsewhere, about USD 200m of economic losses may have been caused by the earthquakes on 4 and 5 July in Southern California near Ridgecrest. One risk modelling company has estimated that the insured loss would be about USD 40m (Source: Karen Clark & Company).

Other recent events

The following noteworthy natural events recently occurred during late July although, at present, these events are not expected to have a significant impact on Twelve Capital’s portfolios, or insured loss estimates have not yet been issued.

US storms and flooding

Over the last week, there have been clusters of US severe convective storms which led to wind and hail damage. As well as winds of up to 140 km/h there was also flash flooding. At least six people died in heat-related incidents. The insured losses are expected be over USD 100 million (Source: Aon).

South-Asia flooding

This is ongoing in India and Bangladesh with further monsoon rains expected. There have been over 200 deaths so far as well as damage to many homes and crops. The economic loss to the agriculture sector was estimated at USD 40m (Source: Aon).

Russian wildfires

Wildfires are burning in the Far East and Siberian regions of Russia. Although, to date, there has not been a major impact on property, the economic losses that are likely to be incurred by the forestry sector are like to be in the tens of millions of US dollars (Source: Aon).

Monday, 29 July 2019